Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 0.054811 0.062366 0.070829 0.081057 0.093145 0.107051 0.124365
2026-01-18 0.045103 0.054859 0.066726 0.082395 0.102790 0.128793 0.165035
2026-01-25 0.037017 0.047604 0.061417 0.081119 0.109098 0.148364 0.209422
2026-02-01 0.030236 0.040792 0.055430 0.077799 0.112216 0.165122 0.256768
2026-02-08 0.026145 0.036927 0.052787 0.078744 0.122079 0.195392 0.338320
2026-02-15 0.022837 0.033634 0.050407 0.079695 0.132631 0.231231 0.448768
2026-02-22 0.020336 0.031152 0.048851 0.081768 0.146171 0.278642 0.612618
2026-03-01 0.018174 0.028858 0.047197 0.083393 0.159851 0.333503 0.836905
2026-03-08 0.015963 0.026131 0.044313 0.082104 0.167590 0.380318 1.086034
2026-03-15 0.013627 0.022835 0.039832 0.076636 0.164605 0.400710 1.280754
2026-03-22 0.012366 0.021301 0.038427 0.077378 0.176998 0.471155 1.750079
2026-03-29 0.011458 0.020289 0.037873 0.079946 0.195499 0.574076 2.539175
2026-04-05 0.010480 0.019027 0.036648 0.080837 0.210702 0.681887 3.624429
2026-04-12 0.009601 0.017839 0.035381 0.081372 0.225672 0.805463 5.214401
2026-04-19 0.008672 0.016421 0.033367 0.079478 0.232459 0.904872 7.054807
2026-04-26 0.007754 0.014907 0.030895 0.075746 0.231642 0.971718 8.976852
2026-05-03 0.007197 0.014105 0.029972 0.076252 0.247164 1.146694 13.516797
2026-05-10 0.006707 0.013386 0.029132 0.076827 0.263820 1.357318 20.975029
2026-05-17 0.006322 0.012854 0.028676 0.078522 0.286801 1.654934 35.523233
2026-05-24 0.005959 0.012325 0.028135 0.079829 0.309468 2.003614 61.947894
2026-05-31 0.005523 0.011573 0.026888 0.078414 0.318551 2.264932 97.190389
2026-06-07 0.004988 0.010526 0.024690 0.073096 0.304785 2.285932 119.966826
2026-06-14 0.004717 0.010095 0.024139 0.073676 0.324048 2.719555 227.016224